Most fossil-fuel reserves must remain untapped to hit 1.5 °C warming goal

From Nature, 8 September 2021:

Nearly 90% of economically viable global coal reserves must be left in the ground to have even a 50% chance of hitting internationally agreed climate-change goals, according to an updated model of limits to fossil-fuel extraction, published today in Nature.

For a 50% chance of remaining below 1.5 °C of global warming — the more aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris agreement — the world must not emit more than 580 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide before 2100, report the authors. Under this scenario, researchers led by environmental and energy economist Dan Welsby at University College London calculate, 89% of coal reserves, 58% of oil reserves and 59% of gas reserves must remain unextracted. Read more.

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